At the Heart of the Triangle: Analyzing Leader-Level Diplomacy in the South Caucasus and its Regional Power Dynamics

This paper investigates the evolving diplomatic relationships between the three South Caucasian countries-Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia-and their regional neighbors-Türkiye, Russia, and Iran-through the lens of high-level leader visits from 1991 to the early 2020s. Departing from traditional emphases on energy infrastructure and territorial conflicts, this study adopts leader-level visits as a proxy for understanding geopolitical alignments and foreign policy priorities. Drawing on original and global datasets, the analysis reveals significant asymmetries in engagement patterns: Azerbaijan emerges as the most diplomatically active and strategically balanced state, while Armenia and Georgia exhibit more selective regional alignments. The paper also highlights how broader regional dynamics, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, have shaped visit patterns.

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