TÜBA Reports on the India-Pakistan Crisis: Increasing Global Security Vulnerabilities
TÜBA has released an English-language report prepared by its International Relations Working Group. The report analyzes the escalating tensions between Pakistan and India, which have the potential to lead to nuclear war, from scientific, historical, and legal perspectives. The study will soon be available in Turkish as well.
At the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and before the outbreak of the Palestine-Israel conflict in 2023, the TÜBA International Relations Working Group convened urgently and published reports on these unresolved conflicts via www.tuba.gov.tr Most recently, the working group, composed of leading international relations scholars from Türkiye and around the world, addressed the Pakistan-India crisis in a new report titled Neither War Nor Peace. The report emphasizes that the crises between the two countries threaten not only the region but also global security.
International Balance and Türkiye
The TÜBA study calls on international actors, especially Türkiye, to intensify efforts to bring both sides together for diplomatic dialogue and confidence-building measures.
According to the report, the crisis escalated following the attack on a tourist group in Pahalgam in April-May 2025, resulting in 26 deaths. Subsequent Indian airstrikes, Pakistani retaliation, and intensified artillery fire along the border elevated the conflict to its most dangerous level since the 1999 Kargil War.
It points out that the domestic policy strategies of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which are rooted in Hindu nationalism, and the increasing influence of the military in Pakistan have pushed both countries toward confrontation rather than reconciliation during times of crisis. It also highlights the use of nationalist sentiments as a political tool, particularly during election periods.
Path to Crisis
India held Pakistan-backed groups responsible for the attack and responded accordingly. Diplomatic relations between the two nations were suspended, and India began to question the Indus Waters Treaty. In turn, Pakistan closed its airspace and launched retaliatory air operations. Thanks to diplomatic interventions by actors such as the United States, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia, the crisis de-escalated.
The roots of the current crisis lie in the past.
This report traces the origins of the India-Pakistan conflict back to the 1947 partition. The artificial borders created by the British colonial "divide and rule" policy, particularly the status of Kashmir, have become central to both countries' identity politics. Pakistan's identity as a "Muslim state" and India's identity as a "secular democracy" have historically fueled mutual distrust.
The report examines the Kashmir issue as a multi-layered crisis, with the most critical layer being the nuclear threat with global implications. In 2019, India's decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir's special status and place the region under direct federal control triggered a surge in military presence and influence. According to the report, this move led to a severe erosion of trust among the Kashmiri people and created fertile ground for the rise of radical groups.
The final section of the report explores five different scenarios, analyzing the potential implications of the crisis for Türkiye, the region, and the global security ecosystem.