TÜBA Assessed Recent Developments in the Middle East
At a meeting organized by the TÜBA International Relations Working Group, regional developments following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran were assessed. The regional and global impacts of the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. were discussed from multiple perspectives.
The meeting was attended by TÜBA President Prof. Dr. Muzaffer Şeker, Working Group Coordinator Prof. Dr. A. Nuri Yurdusev, Prof. Dr. Pınar Bilgin, Prof. Dr. Şener Aktürk, Prof. Dr. Ali Balcı, Prof. Dr. Ayşegül Komsuoğlu, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bayram Sinkaya, and Turkish Young Academy President Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mürsel Doğrul.
The Global Dimension of Events in the Middle East
The potential implications of developments in Iran for Türkiye, the broader geopolitical context of recent developments in the Middle East, Iran’s internal political, economic, and social situation, the historical and strategic dimensions of Iran–Israel relations, the geopolitical and economic dimensions of U.S. and Israeli policies toward Iran, China’s role in the region, an assessment of military intervention from the perspective of international law, and the regional impacts in the context of the Gaza war and energy security were discussed in detail.
President Şeker stated that recent developments in the Middle East should be viewed not merely as isolated incidents, but as a result of the global energy crisis, competition among major powers, and the erosion of norms within the international system. He added, “The energy crisis, which has deepened due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and Europe’s efforts to turn back to nuclear energy are affecting regional balances. In this process, conflicts in the Middle East are increasingly giving rise to broader geopolitical consequences. The impact of modern wars on civilians is increasing, and the deterrent power of international institutions is weakening.” Prof. Dr. Şeker noted that the public’s tendency to view wars almost as a spectacle is also a significant social issue. He pointed out that the interplay of energy, artificial intelligence, and security could create new conflict zones in the future, emphasizing the importance of addressing these issues through a multidisciplinary approach by scientists. Stating that the outcomes of the meeting are highly valuable given the critical phase the world is currently in, Prof. Dr. Şeker said, “Evaluating this critical phase with highly specialized scientists who are experts in their fields and developments is a crucial step; we will share the results of the meeting with the public in the form of a report as soon as possible.”
The meeting featured comprehensive assessments of Iran’s current political, economic, and social situation. Additionally, the discussion addressed Iran’s internal political dynamics and the regime’s legitimacy challenges, analyzing the impact of economic issues, social protests, and pressures on the government. It was emphasized that despite Iran’s regional and military capabilities, its internal political balances remain fragile. Participants also assessed the historical and strategic dimensions of Iran-Israel relations, discussing the effects of Iran’s nuclear capabilities on regional security balances. The regional actors supported by Iran and their role within Iran’s strategic approach were also among the key topics of the meeting.
The Backyard of U.S. and Israeli Policies
The geopolitical and economic dimensions of U.S. and Israeli policies toward Iran were also discussed. An assessment was made regarding the potential role of energy policies, global power balances, and shifting strategic calculations in the Middle East in these interventions. Additionally, China’s position in the region and the effects of great power competition on the Middle East were discussed. Within the scope of developments evaluated from the perspective of international law, the question of how U.S. and Israeli military intervention against Iran could be assessed within the framework of international law was addressed. In this context, it was noted that such intervention has controversial aspects from the perspective of international law and that its effects on the global order must be carefully examined. Participants also touched upon the potential repercussions of developments in Iran on Türkiye. Particular attention was drawn to the likelihood of increased educational and migration flows of Iranian students to Türkiye and the importance of academic and social support mechanisms during this process.
At the meeting, where the impact of the ongoing war in Gaza on regional balances was also discussed, the repercussions of the conflict on Iran, Israel, and other regional actors were assessed. Türkiye’s role in the region and potential diplomatic initiatives were also among the topics of discussion.
Energy security and regional energy flows were also addressed, and the potential effects of the conflicts in the Middle East on global energy markets were assessed. The relationship between the energy supply strategies of China, Japan, and other major economies and developments in the Gulf region was also examined.