Geopolitics and AI: Power, Influence, and Foreign Policy

This chapter examines how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping geopolitical rivalry, nationalsecurity, and the international order. It argues that AI has become a central site of strategiccompetition because states increasingly treat computational capacity, data control, andalgorithmic advantage as core elements of national power. The chapter shows that AIcomplicates conflict dynamics by compressing decision-making timelines, increasinguncertainty, and challenging established assumptions about deterrence, escalation control,and crisis stability. At the systemic level, it argues that AI contributes to a more fragmentedand technopolar order marked by techno-nationalism, weaponized interdependence, datasovereignty, and competing technological blocks. The chapter then turns to Türkiye as a casestudy of how a middle power navigates these pressures through defense-oriented demand,targeted capacity building, and flexible alignment. Türkiye’s experience shows that middlepowers may seek strategic autonomy without pursuing full technological sovereignty,although its distinctive security environment and multi-vector foreign policy limit broadergeneralization.